Capturing spatial variability in the regional Ground Motion Model of Groningen, the Netherlands

Abstract

Long-term exploration of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands led to induced seismicity. Over the past nine years, an increasingly sophisticated Ground Motion Model (GMM) has been developed to assess the site response and the related seismic hazard. The GMM output strongly depends on the shear-wave velocity (VS), among other input parameters. To date, VS model data from soil profiles (Kruiver et al., Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 15(9): 3555–3580, 2017; Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 96(5): s215–s233, 2017) have been used in the GMM. Recently, new VS profiles above the Groningen gas field were constructed using ambient noise surface wave tomography. These so-called field VS data, even though spatially limited, provide an independent source of VS to check whether the level of spatial variability in the GMM is sufficient. Here, we compared amplification factors (AF) for two sites (Borgsweer and Loppersum) calculated with the model VS and the field VS (Chmiel et al., Geophysical Journal International, 218(3), 1781–1795, 2019 and new data). Our AF results over periods relevant for seismic risk (0.01–1.0 s) show that model and field VS profiles agree within the uncertainty range generally accepted in geo-engineering. In addition, we compared modelled spectral accelerations using either field VS or model VS in Loppersum to the recordings of an earthquake that occurred during the monitoring period (ML 3.4 Zeerijp on 8 January 2018). The modelled spectral accelerations at the surface for both field VS and model VS are coherent with the earthquake data for the resonance periods representative of most buildings in Groningen (T = 0.2 and 0.3 s). These results confirm that the currently used VS model in the GMM captures spatial variability in the site response and represents reliable input for the site response calculations.