Water-supply constraints on oil sufficiency through heavy-oil development by western Canadian oil industry

Abstract

A serious effort to restore Canadian oil sufficiency would require the offset of oil imports at a rate of 600,000 barrels per day plus the balancing of a 15% annual decline in present light-oil production. Oil sufficiency may require significant developments of offshore frontier oil, but also the phased construction of one to six world-scale heavy-oil production and upgrading units. In onshore Western Canada heavy oil has been found in abundance in Western Canadian areas where water deficiency prevails. World-scale heavy-oil plants require the implementation of large-scale diversions of fresh river water ranging from 2-22 m3/s. Additional off-line storage reservoirs sized from 5-170 million m3 would also be necessary to provide security of water supply from the North Saskatchewan River during the low-flow winter months and to avoid high-flow sedimentation problems. Super-large on-line water-storage schemes, considered 15 years ago, would reduce the need for off-line water storage, but would encompass construction of some eight large dams and diversion canals at a cost of 14 billion dollars. Development of economic water-recycling technology appears essential and realistic in the overcoming of water supply constraints to Canadian oil sufficiency.