De energievoorziening van Nederland voorheen en in de toekomst

Abstract

This article outlines the development of primary energy demand by the various consumer categories in the Netherlands since 1950, and discusses the shifts that have taken place in the contribution by the various energy sources. In addition, an attempt is made at extrapolating energy consumption towards the year 1980. At first, solid fuels held the dominant position, but when energy prices began to drop after the first Suez crisis, Dutch coal in particular felt the impact, and began to be gradually ousted form the inland market. Up to 1965, the decrease of the coal consumption was compensated almost entirely by liquid fuels, while after that year also natural gas began to play an important role. The consumption of natural gas increased so rapidly that between 1965 and 1969 the sales of fuel oil to industry showed a decline. Also the demand for natural gas for the generation of electric power and for home heating purposes has gone up sharply. In 1969 the share of natural gas in the overall energy consumption was already as high as 25% that of oil being 59%. Between 1965 and 1969 the overall demand for energy rose more than 8% annually, to reach a level of over 60 million tons of coal equivalent. The increase estimated for the period 1969-1980 is almost 6% per annum, which means that in the latter year the overall consumption will be more than 110 million tons of coal equivalent. The consumption shift on the Dutch energy market is expected to continue. Eventually, natural gas will provide more than 40% of energy demand in the Netherlands, while the share of mineral oil will drop to below 50%.The growth of the gas consumption by the three categories referred to above will persist. Special mention should be made in this connection of the increasing use of central heating installations, which is largely due to the introduction of natural gas. Since the price of natural gas has been coupled to that of heavy fuel oil, gas will remain a very competitive fuel for large-scale consumers. Nevertheless, liquid fuels will retain an important position, not only in the transportation market and for nonenergetic purposes, but also - be it to a lower degree - as a domestic heating fuel. In industry and electric power stations oil is experiencing severe competition from gas. After 1975 nuclear energy may also become important as a power generating agent. Eventually, the use of coal will come to be restricted to the iron and steel industry.