History match of the Groningen field dynamic reservoir model to subsidence data and conventional subsurface data

Abstract

This paper presents the method applied to history-match the Groningen field dynamic model to conventional data (pressure data and water influx data) and to subsidence data, which is a novelty. Modelled subsidence is matched to subsidence data based on a simplified geomechanical model, which was built into the dynamic simulator. A two-tier method was used to first achieve a match on a field-wide scale using field-average history-match quantifiers, which was then further improved at a regional/well level using regional history-match quantifiers. The history match was assisted by a space-filling experimental design. The resulting model has a field-average match to pressure data of ±2.17 bar with a measurement uncertainty of ±0.4 bar, to water influx data of ±2m with a measurement uncertainty of ±0.5m, and to subsidence data of ±4 cm with a measurement uncertainty of ±1 cm. The output from this model is used as input for compaction, subsidence and production forecasts feeding into the hazard and risk assessment completed by NAM for the Groningen Winningsplan 2016.