Using expert opinion for assessing seismic hazard in low-seismicity areas

Abstract

The uncertainty in seismic hazard is especially important in regions of low seismicity where empirical observations alone do not constrain the locations and characteristics of future seismicity. In these regions, subjective judgment, properly defined and documented, must be used to quantify the uncertainty in earthquake occurrences and ground motion. A project to use expert opinion to quantify uncertainties has been conducted in the eastern United States, revealing several important rules that such studies must follow. These are that the judgments and documentation must be firmly based and justified on a scientific plane, that diversity among experts must be resolved if it is caused by misunderstanding or miscommunications, and that the earth scientists themselves must be involved in the development of the procedures to quantify and document expert opinion.